Voters on Friday diverged from the legacy media messaging that created a firestorm over GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump’s doubts whether he would accept the results of the 2016 election, keeping him ahead in polling, including a “substantial lead” among independents.
Real Clear Poltiics reported the IBD-TIPP tracking poll had Trump leading 41 percent to 40 percent, Rasmussen reports had Trump up 43-41 and the L.A. Times/USC Tracking had Trump ahead 45-44.
Only if one would assume that third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein would be removed from the ballot is Clinton ahead of Trump, then by a 43-41 margin, the surveys show.
The analysis of the IBD polling, which is a national poll of 789 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, explained that voters seemed unmoved by the mainstream media’s outrage over Trump’s statement that he would keep Wednesday night debate’s moderator “in suspense” about whether he would accept the results.
“Wednesday’s lively presidential debate featured a comment by Donald Trump to a question from Fox News moderator Chris Wallace, who asked whether Trump would respect the results of the Nov. 8 election if he feels the vote was fraudulent or ‘rigged.’
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“‘I’ll look at it at the time,’ Trump said. He added, ‘I’ll keep you in suspense.’
“‘Hillary called Trump’s words ‘terrifying,’” IBD commented.
“Yet, despite a media and political uproar over Trump’s comments – the New York Times’ piece Thursday ran under the headline ‘Donald Trump Vs. American Democracy,’ while the Huffington Post’s shouted ‘Trump’s Shocking Answer On Respecting Election Results Is The Only Debate Moment That Matters’ – voters didn’t appear to agree. The IBD/TIPP poll showed little if any erosion in Trump’s support.”
The analysis pointed out that the answers about economic policy, immigration, guns, abortion, the Supreme Court also didn’t change the results. Nor did the “personal barbs” tossed back and forth.
“What explains Trump’s continued lead? One key fact that has shown up in the three days of IBD-TIPP polling is that Trump holds a substantial 42 percent to 31 percent advantage over Clinton among independent voters.”
They generally are socially liberal but fiscally conservative – and they “now make up about 34 percent of the electorate.”
Rasmussen, which had Trump ahead 43-40 on Thursday and 43-41 on Friday, said, “A new high of 88 percent of voters now say they are certain how they will vote in this election. Among these voters, it’s Trump 48 percent, Clinton 47 percent, Johnson three percent and Stein two percent. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and election day, it’s Trump 38 percent, Trump 25 percent, Johnson 21 percent and Stein 16 percent.”
Rasmussen’s survey of 1,500 likely voters has a sample error rate of 2.5 percent.
The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times “Daybreak” poll, which polls about 3,000 eligible voters daily, on Friday had Donald Trump at 44.5 percent and Hillary Clinton at 43.8 percent.
Trump’s margin there has been increasing, even if only slightly, over recent days.
The polls are starting to reflect the impact of Wednesday’s debate, which appears so far to have been nominal.