Trump Victory Predicted By Professor Who Has Called Every Presidential Race Since 1984

American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, has accurately predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984 and now he’s calling 2016 for Trump. Lichtman uses a system he calls the “Keys to the White House” which he developed after studying every election cycle from 1860 through 1980.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” are the following 13 true/false questions, where an answer of “true” always favors the re-election of the incumbent party, in this case, Hillary. If, however, the answer to six or more of the 13 keys is “false” then the incumbent loses.

Here is how Lichtman answered his “13 Keys to the White House”:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Lichtman Answer: False – “They got crushed.”

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Lichtman Answer: True

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Lichtman Answer: False

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Lichtman Answer: False – “In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven.”

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Lichtman Answer: True

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Lichtman Answer: True

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Lichtman Answer: False – “No major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act.”

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Lichtman Answer: True

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Lichtman Answer: True

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Lichtman Answer: True

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Lichtman Answer: False – “No major smashing foreign policy success.”

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman Answer: False – “Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.”

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman Answer: True

We would probably be more likely to argue that the answer to almost every one of those questions is “False” but we’ll take Lichtman’s word for it.

But, while Lichtman predicted a Trump victory, he did hedge the prediction by pointing out that Trump is unlike any candidate this country has seen since 1860.

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.Lichtman

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